Subscribe/RSSThe next wave of real estate defaults and foreclosures should be underway no later than the second half of 2010 and should continue well into 2011. Alt-A and Option-ARM mortgage resets are due to begin a sharp trend up and continue into 2012 to 2013. This suggests the mid to upper end of the housing market is on the precipice of a major decline, much like the sub-prime market of the past two year.
If this should come to pass as the numbers suggest, the banking/financial industry is due another major hit in 2010-2011. The continue real estate and banking/financial services implosion should have a widespread bearish effect on the economy (U.S. and beyond). It continues to look like things will get much worse before they get better. Be prepared.
For the factual details on the precarious state of the real estate/mortgage industry, go to www.valueinvestingcongress.com . Click on T2 Partners on the right column, email address that takes you to their mortgage report.
In most regions of the country, we will probably see another 20%-40% decline in real estate values before bottom is hit.
It will probably be many years before real estate even begins to recover so it will probably be best to avoid real estate for some time to come.
Hi Bob,
First I would like to thank you for taking the time to put together some of finest training materials around. All the other gurus have good things to offer: George C. Lane, Bill Williams, Preachter, etc, but none of them has presented their materials in a comprehensive, complete, alpha omega integrated approach as you are. Thank you.
Now based on what I have learned from your materials (and I give all the credits to your teachings), I see a very dark picture in the North america real estate market (US and Canada) for years to come. Here is why:
All these speculative run up in real estate prices started around the 50′s with wave 1 peaked around the early 70′s, wave 3 peaked around the late 80′s and wave 5 peaked around 2007. Now according to your materials, after wave 5 has peaked (using external price retracement of wave 4 and alternate price projections of wave 1 and wave 1 to 3, etc, etc) and when the low of wave 4 of 5 (lower time frame) is taken out, then we can expect a correction greater in time and price than all other previous corrections, meaning the corrections we saw in the mid 70′s and early 90′s are peanuts compare to this coming correction. Also from a time perspective, according to your materials, we should see a correction in time no less than 38.2% of the entire bull run (the years 1950 – 2007, which equals to 57 years) in 57 year * 38.2% = 22 years to come ! I told my family and friend about this and they ostracize me and call me a raving lunatic !