I generally don’t trade individual stocks. I usually trade the bull/bear ETFs for S&P, interest rates, precious metals and Euro, plus futures. But, with all the news recently about Netflix I thought I would check it out.
Netflix has crashed the past few months from a high in July at 304.79 to a low (so far) in late Oct. at 74.25. Ouch! On the weekly chart, in late Oct. Netflix overshot the 78.6% retracement by a bit. What ever momentum indicator you may use has been OS for several weeks. Also looks like a text book five wave decline. For the past couple of years, Netflix has had a fairly consistent 8-11 week low-low cycle. The Oct. low was week 9 from the last weekly low in Aug.
There was a huge gap down Oct. 25, must have been some news how another 100,000 or so subscribers canceled. Netflix isn’t going to go out of business. They’ve been pretty smart for many years, but seem to have made some blunders the past few months.
The technicals are warning to take a look for a bottom. “When there is blood in the streets, look to buy.” Even if Netflix only made a 38.2% retracement, the price would have doubled. This isn’t a specific trade recommendations, only an alert that the technicals as I teach in High Probability Trading Strategies all seem to say at least a weekly low may be near. Check it out for yourself.
Thanks for the heads up on Netflix !
I’ll wait a bit though , since this can easily drop another $30 .
I see you didn’t post my comment in regards to thanking you about the heads up on Netflix .
Told you about Netflix easily dropping another $30 . How did I know ? Simply by applying what you teach in your book . Thank you
LP: Sorry for the delay posting your Netflix comment. You did indeed nail it.
for gold,silver and forex trade set-up,i often study USDDollor trend direction. If USDDollor trend direction is bearish,i will consider long trade for gold,silver and forex trade set-up on the condition that the pattern can be recognized in those markets.
Jack: This is a good idea. While USD and metals don’t always trade inversely to each other, they usually do and a setup in one can be a warning of a reversal in the other. A good example is with the USD and gold right now. The gold weekly momentum cycles and pattern position suggests gold will soon begin to decline to a new low. However, the USD technical position indicates a weekly high was recently made and the USD trend will be net down for the next few weeks (gold would typically be up). Which will it be? I suspect USD down / gold up. We’ll soon see.
Hi,bob,i want to ask you one question ,is your HPTS suitable for trade monthly and weekly chart?
i found sometimes we should consider the Dtosc postion in monthly chart,i.e.now Euro/USD monthly chart,Dotsc is
OS zone,it is ok that we can exist the long-term long trade in monthly chart as per Dtosc OB zone or Bearish reversal although Weekly chart Dtosc ever make some bearish reversal on the condition that EUR is still below 1.3450 (50% In-Ret off 1.4939 dated on 1th May 2011 high)?
Because i found the Dtosc high and low can pick up near main high and main low each other in monthly chart but weekly chart can not do so.
Pls comment it.
I usually don’t look at the momentum position on a monthly chart because plus/minus one or two months is a long time to wait and the market can make a major move before it is confirmed by the monthly momentum reversal. The weekly momentum position is very helpful. I personally look to trade the daily and weekly trends for trades that last from a few days to a few weeks.
I think The assumption of low or high pivots completion is very important in DT techinal and The assumption must be based on Time,Pattern,price and Momentum. If one pivots are confirmed by DT techinal,we only focus on the market data from the assumed pivots.under this condition,we can do momentum parametres set-up,DT time and DT price projections.
pls comment it.
Jack. I’m not sure what the question is, so not sure how to comment.
is it ok that i can upload one picture? so you will understand my meansing.
I don’t know how to upload a picture with a comment.